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Forex News

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More on Goldman Sachs cutting its forecast for the S&P500

I referred to the downgraded forecast from Goldman Sachs in a post on Monday: S&P500 GS (chief equity strategist) targets 4300 That post was mainly about Goldman Sachs downgrading their US GDP forecasts.  Also on Monday I posted: Goldman Sachs' Blankfein says firms should be prepared for a recession. Plenty of nourishment for the bears from GS yesterday! Anyway, back to that S&P 4,300 projection, adding a little more now, the important snippet: we cut our year-end target to 4300 (from 4700) reflects higher interest rates and slower economic growth than we previously assumed Our new baseline forecast assumes no recession  A recession would see the index fall by 11% to 3600 as the P/E drops to 15x ps. Morgan Stanley are more bearish:Morgan Stanely - forecasting S&P towards 3,400

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD moves lower as yields back off

Morgan Stanley are forecasting EUR/USD to 1.03, warn of an overshoot to parity US major indices mixed with Dow higher, S&P and Nasdaq lower US crude oil futures settle at $114.20 Westpac sees three more 50 bps hikes from the RBNZ European equity close: Mixed bag as a new week gets underway BOE's Saunders: I bleieve we should move more quickly to a neutral stance BOE Bailey: Over 80% of UK inflation overshoot is due to energy/tradable goods Fed's Williams: We need to get real rates back to zero Canadian house prices tick down as sales volumes plunge Canada March manufacturing sales +2.5% vs +1.7% expected US May Empire Fed -11.6 vs +17 expected Forexlive European FX news wrap 16 May - With @PriapusIQ EU, U.S. Agree to Cooperate on Supply Chain Ruptures From Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine The USD moved lower versus all the major currencies with the exception of the CHF. The USD is weaker declines vs all except the CHF Fundamentally, the regional manufacturing indices got off to a slow start with the Empire Manufacturing index falling by -11.6 vs 17 expected. Ouch, but it can be a volatile series.  Fed speak had NY Fed Williams saying that we need to get real rates back to zero.  He seemed to imply the real rate is the expected inflation rate next year which he expects to be much lower than the near 8% level today.  He does agree that 50 basis point hikes over the new couple of meetings makes sense (2x 50 bps = 2.0% target).  Other comments: Mon pol can reduce demand and bring it back into line with supply We need more housing supply to meet demand We have an economy that is out of balance The sectors that are most out-of-balance are those which are rate-sensitive Hike. Hike. Hike and fix supply by lowering demand.  If you can't beat it, destroy it.   Rates moved lower, helping the dollars move lower.  Traders are finding it easier to buy bonds if stocks weaken and growth seems to be slowing. Of interest going forward will be the retail sales report tomorrow.  The expectations are for a 1.0% increase after rising 0.5% last month. The core retail sales is expected to rise 0.4% vs 1.1% last month.  Be aware. US rates moved lower IN other markets:Spot gold move higher with the falling dollar. The price of gold rose will dollars and $0.62 or 0.70% $1823.30Spot silver rose $0.52 or 2.49% at $21.60WTI crude oil is trading up $3.35 or 3.02% at $113.75The price bitcoin is trading just above $30,000 at 5 PM ET. The price is at $30,001A concern as far as inflation goes is that food commodities moved higher:Wheat rose the daily limit of  700 to $1247.46Corn rose 28 to 809India over the weekend put a hold on exports of wheat as drought conditions threaten their food supply. Meanwhile, at the gas pumps the national average for a gallon of gas is $4.48, which is 40 cents more than a month ago, and $1.43 more than a year ago. Money is being sucked out of consumers bank accounts without buying anything different than what they bought a year ago.  Him

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More from Morgan Stanely - forecasting S&P towards 3,400

Morgan Staley on the euro: Morgan Stanley are forecasting EUR/USD to 1.03, warn of an overshoot to parity Adding in this snippet from them on US equities, this in (very) brief. MS have 3 points on where we are at: valuations are now more attractive equity markets so oversold rates potentially stabilizing below 3% And conclude: stocks appear to have begun another material bear market rally What's next: After that, we remain confident that lower prices are still ahead close to 3,400

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Morgan Stanley are forecasting EUR/USD to 1.03, warn of an overshoot to parity

This snippet comes via eFX - For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. Morgan Stanley Research:"We expect EUR/USD to continue softening in the near term, falling to 1.03 by 3Q22 and perhaps even overshooting to parity as concerns about local geopolitics and commodities intensify meaningfully further," MS notes. "However, we expect EUR/USD to begin rebounding modestly in 4Q22and into 2023, with upside driven by reduced fixed income outflows and a weaker USD on the one hand, but limited by continued geopolitical risk premium, relatively tepid growth numbers, and low relative local returns on the other hand. Further optimism on EU integration and an accelerated ECB normalization could bring EUR/USD toward our bull case of 1.14, while sub-expectations growth may keep EUR/USD under 1.10," MS adds.

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Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 17 May 2022

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

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US major indices mixed with Dow higher, S&P and Nasdaq lower

The US major indices are closing mixed with the Dow up modestly and the S&P and Nasdaq lower.A look at the final numbers shows:Dow industrial average rose 26.76 points or 0.08% at 32223.41S&P index fell -15.87 points or -0.39% at 4008.03NASDAQ index fell -142.2 points or -1.20% at 11662.80Russell 2000 fell -9.24 points or -0.52% at 1783.42Recall, the broader S&P and NASDAQ index have been down 6 straight trading weeks. The Dow industrial average has fallen 7 straight trading weeks coming into this week.Some oversize winners today included :Occidental, +5.88%Schlumberger, +3.53%Chevron, +3.09%Exxon Mobil +2.38%Merck +2.13%Caterpillar +1.39%Dollar Tree +1.29%IBM +1.21%Northrop Grumman +1.16%Pfizer +1.14%Big losers today included:Beyond meat -12.8%DoorDash, -10.72%Shopify, -10.56%Snowflake, -8.8%GoodRx -8.2%Rivian, -6.89%crowdStrike, -6.33%Zoom, -6.24%Tesla -5.88%

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